Monday, August 25, 2008

Game Week - last chance predictions for the SEC and what we will learn.

After months of wait we are finally here....game week. Last week for silly preseason predictions and homer fans getting to think that the team that couldn't make one of the hundred bowls is going to win a title. Next up, reality checks for half of the college football teams and their fan bases.

Here's a breakdown of what each team stands to learn on the first week of the season:

Alabama - Probably the most high profile game for the SEC in week one. Clemson is the favorite and based on talent and experience should win the game....but then again, we've said that about Clemson seemingly many times and they've always found ways to fall short of expectations. It is hard for me to believe that Clemson has never even gotten to the ACC title game. The Tide comes in with new faces in the fold with a big recruiting class that has fans buzzing. Julio Jones looks to be the real deal and I'd expect at least a couple of contributors from the defensive side. Remember though, even if you took the top 50 recruits in the nation and watched them this season, only a moderate percentage would make an impact right away. Here' s the real questions for Bama - Can the defense be decent against the run with virtually no experience in the front 7? Is John Parker Wilson a guy that can get you 9 or 10 wins? Clemson will be a good initial test for that defense and slowing down the like of Spiller, Davis and the very effective Cullen Harper would likely bring riots of joy in the state of Alabama. Wilson needs to move past the tendency to throw bad picks in bad spots and not get rattled and start throwing balls 8 rows deep when the opponent is rushing 2 and dropping 9. Color me skeptical till I see him do it. For now I'm thinking Bama fans will be sounding like Denny Green on Sunday...."He was who we thought he was". Very few QB's change that drastically, and Wilson has been a guy that is gutsy, tough and has a good arm....but he's also gotten rattled, antsy and looked horrible when the pocket has collapsed on him over the years. This time of year fans tend to remember the good games(Tennessee) and not the horrible ones(LaMo, MissState and mediocre Iron Bowls) before being reminded why they were cussing the kid less than a year ago.

Arkansas - With Western Illinois we will learn very little about how good this team will be. At least Arky fans will get a legit look at what the style of the offense will look like. Casey Dick will probably look good and rack up yards, but I'll wait another week or two before buying it.

Auburn - Mission - don't fall victim to the LaMo trap like your in state rival did. Truthfully this one shouldn't be a contest and we won't learn a ton about the Tigers here. Interesting things to watch will be the QB rotation that Auburn uses and what the young DB's look like in coverage. Is it really a true QB rotation or is it a special package for one of them in the likes of the Leak/Tebow situation? Auburn needs it's young DB's to at least look serviceable in the first two games and also needs to avoid injury in that area.

Florida - Last year ended with UF fans screaming about the lack of players in the secondary. Michigan completely exposed the Gators in that area and Chad Henne absolutely tore them apart. Hawaii is probably not a real threat to beat the talented Gators, but they are the perfect team to test that weakness. Hawaii may not have June Jones or Colt Brennan anymore, but they will look to put the ball in the air a ton. The off season was suppose to be a time to develop the younger players and have them solid by kickoff....until injuries started to decimate the defensive backfield. Major Wright is an absolute stud and an intimidator at the safety spot, but guys like Joe Haden and the off thrown at Wondy Pierre-Louis will have to step up for UF to reach it's lofty goals. Playing in a division with guys like Richt and Spurrier is tough on a team with problems at DB.

Georgia - The only thing we can learn from the nations #1 team playing Georgia Southern is whether or not they can go another week without an arrest. UGA also has some top tier freshmen like A.J. Green that we will get to see in a game like this.

Kentucky - Replacing it's best offensive players and playing an in state rival trying to rebound from a devastating season....interesting first game for the Cats. This game will truly reflect what we can expect from Rich Brooks team this year. Kentucky is not likely to reach the levels it did a year ago, but would like to remain a team that other SEC foes actually fear instead of being a game that most just chalk up in the W column. Kentucky fans should have a real idea of what is in store for them after this one.

LSU - While Appy State isn't likely to pull the same stunt on a BCS team twice, they will give the Tigers a good look at a version of the spread offense that they will see from others this season. Because LSU is so good on both lines, I'm not real sure we will get a good read on the new QB in Hatch or Lee or on the Tigers defensive backfield. The thing to look for is if Hatch or Lee struggle making good reads or hitting open WR's. That will probably not hurt them against Appy State as they can likely to to the power running game to bail them out, but it will give SEC defenses something to salivate over.

Mississippi - I can't wait to see Jevon Snead at QB for the Rebs. Houston Nutt has never had an effective passer that I can recall and would have been greatly dangerous if he ever had. Memphis is a game the Rebs have to win and if Snead is struggling, expect Nutt to go his traditional route of power running game and trick plays. The Ole Miss offense has been behind the game for years.....will we learn anything in the opener that leads us to believe that has changed.

Mississippi State - Was last year lucky? Week one won't tell us a lot. MSU hasn't made a habit of blowing out teams like La Tech and I wouldn't expect they do anything to change that. I'll be watching Wesley Carrol and the passing game because I have no doubt that Croom will have a good running game and a solid, tough defense. If Carrol can be better than hitting a few play action passes here and there, State can repeat last years record. If not I'm afraid the bounces won't go their way and they may be back to sitting at home during the bowl season.

South Carolina - Is Tommy Beecher the guy that Spurrier has been waiting on? The only thing missing from his squad has been the spot that is most important position in a Spurrier offense. This one will get lots of attention since the Gamecocks play on Thursday night in front of every guy that has been dying for college football for 9 months. Lots of pressure on Beecher and really, no USCe QB has had a full good game since the Evil Genius arrived there.

Tennessee - New offensive look, new QB and the darkhorse in the SEC East. I've liked what I've seen from Crompton's limited snaps and think that the Vols might actually be better with Erik Ainge gone. The former staff seemed to just put the ball in his hands when it was unnecessary. Look for more Arian Foster and a better balance on downs like 2nd and 6 where the Vols typically seemed to lean on Ainge to throw the ball too often when the running game was working well. I'm interested to see how the game is called from the new OC. SEC opponents should be watching to see if the Vols will have a truly new look or not.

Vandy - ummmm, sorry but who cares. The Dores aren't going to do anything against Miami (OH) that catches the eye of SEC opponents.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

TWISTED SEC TOP 10

It's that time of year again. Everyone has their top ten lists.....top ten games, top ten rivalries, top ten hypothetical match ups, top ten overrated/underrated teams or players. With college football season on the horizon, the masses start to take what they think are educated guesses at what our season will look like, which games will be classic and who will finish with what record. Here's my look at the Top Ten Crazy Possible moments for the SEC this year. While these may be a bit far fetched, they are all rooted in something within the coach, team or fan base that makes it slightly possible......or probably exactly as accurate as the other lists and rankings that come out before we've seen a snap of football.

#10 - First game coached over web in NCAA history.
Phil Fulmer, exasperated from being served at SEC media days, says he well never physically step foot in the state of Alabama again. Fulmer runs the show from a webcast for the Auburn game, an idea he took from Nick Saban's recruiting tactics. After the game, Fulmer debates using the webcast for all games....including home games. He likes the access he has to the fridge and the ability to reach the jelly doughnuts that the "webcoaching" gives him. Fulmer's statement after the game - "Man that was great. Now I understand why we have some many armchair Quarterbacks. Who could turn this down?"

#9 - Bobby Petrino takes it to a whole new level (again).
Suffering 4 loses already and trailing Kentucky by 14 midway through the 3rd quarter, television cameras catch Bobby Petrino on his cellphone on the sidelines. A little bit of lip reading shows viewers that Bobby uttered the phrase "do you think you can get them to 4.2 per year". After the game, reporters confront Petrino who of course says he was talking to his real estate agent and it had nothing to do with leaving Arkansas. Ten minutes later a note is found in the Arkansas locker room and Petrino is nowhere to be found.

#8 - Les Miles amazes Les Miles by the calls that Les Miles has the guts to make.
In a huge game against Auburn that normally helps determine the winner of the West, Les Miles pulls out all the stops. Miles goes for it on 4th down from his own 18.....he calls a fake punt when he's leading late in the 3rd....he runs a fake FG attempt from the 30 with one second left before halftime thinking he could use the Colt David end around running play to score a TD instead of getting the 3 points. None of those are even close to what Miles does to close the game.
After a drive that included 3 insane 4th down conversions, one on a designed QB draw on 4th and 13, Miles and LSU have a 2 point lead with 0:44 to go. Miles decides that he doesn't want to kick to Auburn "because they could have driven it up for a FG".....so the Hat decides he wants the ball and calls for the onside kick. Confused, the LSU kicker calls timeout, which the Tigers don't have. After a penalty and talking to Miles on the sideline the kicker shakes his head and heads back out to the field. The onside kick is recovered by Auburn and a few plays later Wes Byrum kicks the game winner as time expires. Miles defends his decision in the post game interview by saying "We've been getting alot of those in practice...just didn't happen for us this time. HAVE A NICE DAY!!!!!"

#7 - Steve Spurrier leaves the SEC.....as only Steve could.
Steve Spurrier's frustration with all things at South Carolina come to a head in late October. Despite more wacky calls from Les Miles, South Carolina trails by 28 at halftime. On the way to the locker rooms, Spurrier stops briefly for the interview and tells us in his excellent southern twang "We just ain't got no horses. They got all the horses. They got morons on the sidelines calling plays that my beagle wouldn't try to call. But guess what, they work because they've got players and I've got retarded midget morons over here. Not my fault none of these plays work...hell, I'm a senior citizen and I can throw the ball better than anyone I got on this roster. I think I'm done Holly". Spurrier heads to the tunnel with Rowe frantically following him. We don't see Steve come back out in the 3rd quarter, but by the start of the 4th CBS shows footage of Spurrier landing in a private jet in Augusta.....golf bag in tow.

#6 - Just Urban being Urban.
There are two sides to Urban Meyer.....the robot like workaholic recruiting maniac and the emotional post game crying Urban. After an entire off season being asked about the Georgia celebration, Meyer spends the entire week leading up to the rematch talking about how "it's not been forgotten" and "we remember it well". Meyer calls it the most important game he's ever been a part of as both teams are in the National Championship hunt, the East is on the line, but most importantly to Meyer "our manhood is on the line after what they did to us". Things don't go well for UF early, Georgia jumps out to a lead on an early touchdown....in a sarcastic gesture, the UGA players don't celebrate one bit, they move as uniformly as possible and show absolutely no emotion almost in a march off the field. Problems continue for Meyer and at the start of the 4th UGA scores again to go up 38-10. Meyer is seen kneeling on the sidelines in tears. He is so emotional by the time the game ends that when Erin Andrews tries to interview him, Meyer breaks down to the point of having to be carried off the field.

#5 - Unusual pregame ceremony.
No fan base wants something to celebrate more than those at Alabama. After a tough start with a one sided loss to Clemson in Atlanta the people in power at UA want something to celebrate. Prior to the kickoff of the Tulane game, Alabama rolls out a huge pregame ceremony that includes some of the all time Tide greats like Namath, Newsome and Alexander. What's the occasion you ask........the recognition of the nations #1 recruiting class. Members of the 2008 recruiting class are marched out one by one getting raucous applause from 90,000 fans. Fireworks, jet flyovers and the voice of the Bear himself acknowledge yet another National Title for the Tide. Alabama also presents itself with the 2003 and 2007 BCS titles with their own replica trophies at this ceremony, citing Nick Saban's coaching in 2003 and his players in 2007 at LSU.

#4 - Georgia off the field issues really do show up on the field.
After much debate over whether Dawgs players off the field incidents actually have an effect on the on the field performance we get a very awkward answer. During the first quarter of a revenge game against Tennessee, Athens police walk out on to the field and cuff three Georgia players on charges that they got in yet another bar fight and injured students. One player attempts to flee the scene only to get stopped at the tunnel by Smokey. Mark Richt is quoted as saying "This is really embarrassing, but we have alot of guys still doing the right things."

#3 - Nick Saban finally blows the gasket.....completely.
After battling the media over depth charts, scholarship limits and the availability of his assistants, Nick Saban finally has enough. When questioned about "the process" and what the time frame is before Tide fans can expect to win the West, Saban starts his typical lecture of the beat writers. When one presses him on his 3 game suspension of Prince Hall suddenly becoming a 3 quarter suspension in the Clemson game when Rolando McClain goes down to injury, Saban goes Exocist. After his head stops spinning, he leaps from the podium and starts biting local beat writers Ian Rappaport, Gentry Estes and even gits a nip in on Paul Finebaum. Everyone tests negative for rabies, Saban grants each and exclusive interview as an apology and the following day both the Birmingham News and the Mobile Press Register run stories outlining the gifts and time that Saban spends with underprivileged youth in very football talent laden areas.

# 2 - Tommy Tuberville and Hugh Nall know how to execute the things they teach.
Following a solid victory over former assistant Bobby Petrino and Arkansas, Tuberville heads out to midfield for a circus of a handshake with the guy that almost took his job in 2003. Cameras, of which there are a couple of thousand it seems for this grudge match, catch offensive line coach Hugh Nall circling around behind Petrino. With the quickness of an Olympic 100m champ, Nall hits Petrino low and Tommy turns the handshake into a textbook high hit to complete the chop block. Nall and Tuberville laugh and when asked about it before getting off the field, Tubs says "Well, I wanted to make sure he knew what it felt like to have someone chop your legs out from under you".

#1 - Houston Nutt becomes the first coach in memory to not throw a normal forward pass...and wins.
Arkansas fans will tell you that Houston Nutt is actually allergic to the forward pass and that the only thing that makes it tolerable for him is high doses of amphetamines and trick plays. Nutt hates a standard passing play. He'd much rather run the ball or run a triple flea flicker, hide the midget, double toss back, 360 fakie throwback to the QB bomb than ever, EVER throw a normal slant pattern. Nutt decides to unleash the perfect Houston Nutt game on his newest "big game". When Arkansas comes to Oxford, the mad genius concocts a game plan that features alot of the standard Nutt running game mixed with every trick play he's ever drawn up in the dirt. Nutt actually wears facepaint that mimics the "Joker" from the movie the "Dark Knight" as he comes out of the tunnel. Ole Miss blows out Arkansas while not throwing a single forward pass that doesnt come off some crazy, twisted trick play. Suicide rates in the state of Arkansas set a single weekend record as many Hawg fans see their worst nightmare come true.....Houston Nutt beats them with the type of crazy strategy that made many of them call for his job for the last few years. Nutt tells the press after the game while still wearing the goofy Joker grin...."It was the most beautiful thing I've ever seen in my life".